Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Where Home Prices are Heading

According to Fiserv Case Shiller, which tracks home prices, median home prices nationwide will decrease further in 2011 and then begin to rise slowly in 2012.

Some highlights from the Fiserv Cas Shiller Index:

  • Eight of the 10 worst performing markets in the 2011 first quarter had unemployment rates higher than the national average.
  • Five of the 10 best performing housing markets in the last five years are in Texas, where the Midland and Odessa Metropolitan areas have seen house prices grow 42 percent and 30.3 percent, respectively, from the 2006 first quarter to the 2011 first quarter.
  • The outlook for Florida is a study in contrasts. Four of the 10 metro areas where home prices are projected to grow the most between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 are in Florida (Ocala; Palm Coast; Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach; Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville). But the state is also home to six of the 10 markets projected to suffer the biggest home price declines over the same time period (Miami-Miami Beach, Kendall; Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach; Naples-Marco Island; Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin; Gainesville; Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford).
  • Four metro areas in Washington State (Tacoma; Kennewick-Pasco-Richland; Spokane; Olympia) are in the 10 markets projected to experience the highest home price increases for the 2011 first quarter to 2012 first quarter period.
  • Six of the 10 markets that have suffered the greatest price declines from peak to the first quarter of 2011 are in California (Merced; Modesto; Salinas; Stockton;Vallejo-Fairfield; Bakersfield-Delano).

David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv, noted that continued economic weakness and uncertainty continue to weigh on markets. "The stabilization of housing markets depends greatly on household confidence in the strength of the economic recovery," he said. "Unfortunately, recent economic news has done little to build confidence. Weak job growth numbers in May and June, political wrangling over the Federal government debt ceiling, and the ongoing debt crisis in Europe have all increased pessimism. Households will not become more optimistic about housing markets until they are convinced that the job market is improving and that politicians will not allow debt problems to become new economic catastrophes."

Fiserv continues to project that home prices remain on track to stabilize by the end of 2012.

For more information, view Fiserv Case-Shiller Home price Insights

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